One point that comes through loud and clear at the Trading Tactics Workshops is how much clients benefit from being taken through an example of a recent trade.
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Swing charts provide an excellent way of analysing the price movement in any underlying market.
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Students of Safety in the Market have recently been enjoying the strong movement up from the March lows. Why has it been so engaging?
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Following on from last week’s article, let’s focus on the more recent swing ranges that RIO has produced since the middle of July.
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Over the last two weeks I have examined the idea of harmony in swing ranges focusing on the resource company Rio Tinto.
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Lion Nathan Limited (LNN), since it’s listing in 1991, has been a consistent performer. From March 2000 LNN has trended from around $2.80 per share to well over $5.00 (with a few retracements along the way as all stocks must do).
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With NCP (NewsCorp) showing signs of a bounce the question arises, has NCP turned the corner and what were some early signs to suggest that the tide had turned?
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It has been an interesting couple of weeks on the SPI200 since the market topped out around the 3250''s.
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The market sits in an interesting position at the moment. It has come off from recent strong highs and has understandably corrected.
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This week I was planning to follow on from last weeks article about Scanning using the Starter Pack Pro Software. However, during the week the SPI200 has brought up an opportunity to share a diagnosis of a trade too important to overlook. The run up on the SPI200 over the past couple of weeks has been in the category of extraordinary. The run up lasted 12 consecutive trading days without a lower bottom on the bar chart. Point A for the trade was on 1 October (3151) and Point B on 17 October (3306), giving a Reference Range for the trade of 155 points.
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Many traders'' first experience the markets through a managed fund or some sort of long-term share investment.
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When we get to the end of the year, each of us on any given market has had exactly the same opportunities. By that I mean we all had the same data for the last twelve month to have worked with.
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Those clients who have attended a Trading Tactics Seminar in 2004, have been part of the new improved format. The feedback from those clients who have come back in 2004 as re-attendees has been excellent.
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When starting out with the ABC trading system most traders identify the pattern and set their milestones based on their anticipated Point C. The following day the market will either confirm their view and the trade is entered or the anticipated signal will not be forthcoming.
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This week Aaron Lynch and I have been running the first of the Interactive Trading Workshops in Melbourne. It has been three days packed with information, as I''m sure all those who attended would agree. One of the topics covered during the sessions was trading using Two and Three-Day Swing Charts. One of the clients who had just finished the lesson on this subject immediately identified a terrific trading opportunity on the SPI200.
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Recent weeks in the market have seen some very interesting local movements. A confession I have to make is that I have not been keeping a very close eye on the Australian equities market. Recently the US equities have really caught my eye. It is hard to argue with the liquidity and overall scale of movement across the major stock exchanges. The ABC trading system has been highlighting many profitable trades using the basic rules of the Starter Pack.
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In many of the articles that have been written for Trading Tutors since its inception, most have focused on the positive ABC trades in the market and how they could have been traded for good returns.
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My focus on NAB has been no secret over the past couple of months. It has been a big week in the news for the bank. Seemingly deserted by all quarters.
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One of the challenges for an ABC Trader who is focussing on just a couple of markets, as opposed to running scans across larger groups of stocks, is waiting for the standard ABC set-up.
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That question has consumed many traders’ thoughts this week. I know that the trading tutors have fielded countless emails and phone calls from people wanting a view as to when NAB may bounce back!
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Recently during a discussion with a couple of new traders they shared with me their fascination with the run up in the stock Caltex, CTX.
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There is no better place to focus on for ABC trading opportunities than the US equities market. Noel Campbell and I have just finished a round of seminars in the USA introducing the studies of Gann and Bowden to some very eager traders.
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A question that always arises when trading ABC’s is the need to trade the one day swing chart in sympathy with the weekly trend. This will certainly give you a stronger trade, and one could say a trade with a higher probability for success.
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There’s usually a very good choice of valid ABC trades available on any given day, especially now that the software allows us to look at a diverse range of international markets.
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Following on from last week’s discussion on News Corporation NCP we examined the idea of trading a price forecast of a 1 day swing chart.
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Almost anyone who has traded or owned stock has been in a position where they knew at some time that a stock was going up. Invariably at some point we all realise that we can never be 100% right or certain of a stock’s next move.
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Welcome back to 2005 and all the trading opportunities it can bring. Following on from last year I often discussed the virtues of the oil market traded, on the NYMEX exchange in the United States.
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It doesn´t seem to matter where in the world I travel, when speaking with other traders, regardless of where I go, the stories are all the same.
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When it comes to the markets, Trading Tutors articles allow for a great diversity of ideas to be discussed.
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It certainly has been a festive period on global bourses with the Dow Jones Index cracking the 11,000 mark on the close this past week.
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Even at this early point in 2006, much of the forecasting talent in the US trading community is forecasting a year similar to 2005 which can be best described as ‘sideways and pretty boring’.
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The beginning of the 21 st century has been a time of great opportunity for those who know how to trade commodity futures.
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The meteoric rise of commodities across the globe has seen great trading opportunities appear over the last year or so.
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Trading the Australian market since 2003 has seen several pullbacks, creating excellent buying opportunities.
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Any of our readers that have been following the Share Price Index (SPI) know it has definitely been a good few weeks for records, with virtually new highs achieved day after day.
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Yes, it’s true. I’m going to start talking about Sugar again! It’s been very kind to me and many of our Safety in the Market traders alike. It could be time for more of the same.
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Forget where gold is trading. Have you seen the truly stunning performer in the metals market?
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The equities markets across the globe have been very volatile in the past few days, with the SPI200 taking it’s most serious dip since the late September 2005 high of 4700.
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The tide appears to have turned on equities markets across the world. Looking at the SPI200 (AAI-SpotV) in particular, and hence the overall Australian market, we have seen the 20th anniversary of the May 1986 top play its part.
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In this week’s article I am going to revisit the market action on the Sugar futures contract (SB-SpotV).
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Well there certainly has been no shortage of action and volatility in equities markets across the globe over recent weeks.
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The crisis in the Middle East appears to be worsening and the price of oil has continued to rise at a rapid rate. One could not be blamed for believing it’s a conspiracy of events from a greater power that is helping drive oil higher.
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The concept of a security making a gap either up or down can be something that keeps traders awake at night. The good news for everyone is that 80% of gaps occur in the direction of the trend.
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Ok, ok, its time to face the facts. Sugar has done nothing but continue to fall and fall quite heavily. There is still a buzz amongst our traders about the opportunity this contract provides.
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There is no doubt that since the bear market low on March 13, 2003 (2679), the Australian Stock Market and many global stock indices have gone bananas.
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Last time I wrote for the Trading Tutors Newsletter I said that the Bourses were set to go crazy once again. Well since that time the SPI and the Dow have continued to power up, so all is going well so far for the bulls.
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I have just finished completing my first two Trading Tactics in about 4 months last week, and must say it was a blast to be back doing that seminar.
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The dramatic drop in crude oil price became front page news, with debate on just how low it could go.
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In the search to find energy alternatives to petroleum based products, corn ethanol has emerged as a major new source of fuel.
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In issue #196 (23rd February 2007) of the Trading Tutors Newsletter, Mario talked about Gaps in the Soybean contract.
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I have a very exciting and highly potential profitable set-up to share with you on Coffee futures (KC-SpotV) traded out of New York.
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I have been trading for over 25 years using many and varied trading plans.
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The action during late February and early March on global equity markets is the first sign of the drama to come later this year.
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Talk about a market being able to shrug off a little drama.
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David Bowden favoured trading double tops and double bottoms.
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There is no doubt that the biggest stock index in the world is the S&P500 in the United States.
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To say it’s been a big week in terms of market movements is an understatement.
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To paraphrase the Ralph Waldo Emerson quote with which W.D. Gann opens his first book, The Truth of the Stock Tape, no man can learn what he has not prepared himself to learn.
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The great Jesse Livermore (1877-1940), regarded by many as the greatest trader who ever lived, said: “Speculation (i.e. trading) is nothing more than anticipating coming movements”.
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When we keep hearing how volatile the market is, it is tempting to think that it will always be hard to find a good trade
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Well it has certainly been a big few months in the stock market since the tops of late 2007.
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For now equity markets across the globe have stabilised and have actually started to show some signs of finding a bottom.
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When we left Santos (STO:ASX) last time we were contemplating an ABC long trade that had a previous double bottom for support.
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It is a common misconception that when the general market heads south that all shares must follow.
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When last we looked at Santos (STO:ASX) the price was getting close to the all-time high of 16.08 set last October.
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Since last week we have seen Santos power away and continue to make higher levels.
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The run up on the SPI200 had been quite strong since the low in mid March, until the May 19 top (6004).
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A lot of traders fear overnight gaps. A gap is when the price jumps one way or the other overnight compared to the closing price of the day before.
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It has been a while since we had a look at Santos (STO:ASX). Back in May we were looking at the 22 May top of 20.87
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In Issue No 265 of the Trading Tutors Newsletter we identified the price of $22.34 on 3rd June 2008 as a potential top in Santos (STO:ASX).
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A few months ago I wrote an article on Gold (GC-SpotV) headed “Golden ABC” and discussed a short trade opportunity on the first lower top off the all-time high on Gold.
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Last week was certainly a tough one for equities markets across the globe.
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In this article we will continue our journey through Santos (STO:ASX).
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For those trading the equity markets, times have been tough.
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When I first studied my Smarter Starter Pack, I thought that the way to trade was to find a market and take every ABC long and short trade.
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This is a topic that has been covered in Trading Tutors Newsletters many times before. However, it is so important that it is worth covering again. Both WD Gann and David Bowden say that 50% of any range is the strongest resistance and support level.
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In my last article on Santos (STO:ASX) in Issue 300 of the Trading Tutors Newsletter, I focussed mainly on Price. To students of WD Gann and David Bowden this is commonly referred to as the First Dimension of analysis. This time I would like to include a consideration of Time, or the Second Dimension. Of the two, Time is the more important. Gann said that ‘when the Time is up the Volume of sales will increase and force prices higher or lower.’

The rally has begun but getting too excited too early can lead to damaging results.
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Are we in a bear market rally or a new bull  market? What stock is best to invest or trade in? Is it going up or down from  here? In this article we are going to have a look at the current position of Santos (STO:ASX) and how  we would analyse its prospects.
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There is an old saying that the Stock Market spends 80% of its time working out where to go and 20% of its time getting there. The times when the market is preparing for a move are usually known as periods of 'accumulation' or 'distribution', depending on whether the coming move is to be up or down respectively. These 'beds of preparation', as they are also known, are characterised by sideways price action.
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In recent articles I have been illustrating some of the difficulties that a market can present in trading, and Santos (STO:ASX) has been giving more than a few of them lately! In Issue 305 I showed a weekly chart which had the market sitting on the mid-point of the range from the June 2008 all-time high and the October 2008 low. At the time, I said that we needed to wait for a signal from the market, either that it was going to hold above the 50% level or that it was going to head lower. Chart 1 updates this earlier chart.

When we last left Santos (STO:ASX) in Issue 309, it had suffered a significant sell-off in the aftermath of a 2-day trading halt due to a capital raising. The market was clearly oversold after falling 14.5% from the close of trading on 8 May to the close on 14 May. It then came back and made a first higher bottom on the 1-Day Swing Chart. I finished the analysis with the words, ‘this is yet again a time to watch this market carefully for a signal.’

What do you think of when you see ABC Points on a chart? Very probably, you look at it as a potential trade, and then proceed to evaluate its strength or weakness. However, there is another very powerful use for ABC Points, and that is to give potential prices where moves may end and the trend may turn. As usual we will illustrate by looking at Santos (STO:ASX).

Anyone who has attended the Hot Commodities Summit in 2008 or 2009 would be aware of the profit potential of trading commodity futures. However, for many, particularly new traders, futures can seem inaccessible, perhaps because they require more capital, or perhaps simply because they are too confusing.
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In my last article in Trading Tutors Newsletter Issue #315 I mentioned that the lower tops on the chart of Santos (STO:ASX) since the high of 27 March might be an indication for lower prices in Crude Oil.
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I would like to pick up from where I left off in Trading Tutors Newsletter Issue 317.
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When I first started out as a trader, with my Smarter Starter Pack under my belt, there was one thing I conspicuously lacked. That was a view of the bigger picture. I was picking good-looking ABC trades, but I wasn’t looking at them in the context of what was going on in the overall market. Nor was I looking at a broader perspective in the stock I was considering. This caused me to take trades that I should have been avoiding.

Every so often I receive an email from a reader with feedback on this series of articles on Santos (STO:ASX). I always appreciate them, and if you have anything you’d particularly like me to cover, please let me know.
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This is the title of a section that WD Gann wrote in 1923 in a book called The Truth Of The Stock Tape.
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Since we last looked at Santos the market has been trading sideways in a narrow range.
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In Issue 327 we looked at Resistance Cards as a means of identifying potential prices where a market may find support or resistance.
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In Issue 329 an example was given of taking a time frame of 360 days and dividing it into increments of 30 days. Why take 360 days as a time frame?
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Recently we have been looking at the concept of resistance cards and using these in time, in the same way that we use them in price.
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In this article I am indebted to a reader and trader who kindly sent me some of his own work.
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Firstly I would like to say thankyou to all the readers who have given me their feedback on this series of articles I have been writing on Santos.
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Sometimes a market can appear to have strong support and strong resistance. What do you do at a time like this?
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WD Gann said ‘everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relation.’ Markets are made up of human beings, and human beings are part of Nature, and as such governed by the laws of Nature.
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I have written before (in Issue 317) on the subject of what are called Geometric Angles or Gann Angles. These are part of the 3rd dimension of Gann analysis, also known as ‘squaring time and price.’ If this sounds totally confusing, don’t worry. Think of a simple trend line. It is a line joining 2 tops or 2 bottoms and extended forward. The difference with a Gann angle is that it moves at a fixed rate and is thus not dependent on a second top or bottom in order for you to draw the line. You may find it helpful to review the earlier article.

We left off our discussion in Issue 355 with the market stopping us out of our Long position in Santos (STO:ASX) on 13 April. I mentioned very briefly that there were reasons why the market was indicating that it wasn’t going to go higher.

This newsletter goes to a wide readership, and traders of all levels of ability follow these articles. I aim to write information that will suit people at these different levels.

The recent articles in this series on Santos (STO:ASX) have been inspired by a lesson from the WD Gann Stock Market Course where he teaches his Mechanical Stock Trading Method and tests it over a 15-year period in US Steel.

In the lesson of this name in the WD Gann Stock Market Course there is the following passage:
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Firstly I would like to express my thanks to all the readers who have given me feedback on these articles on Santos (STO:ASX).
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In the Discussion Forums recently there has been some discussion about a potential double top in Lihir Gold (LGL), which looks quite interesting, so I have decided to write about it here.
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Last Friday, 9 July, an article appeared in the Australian Financial Review suggesting that Santos (STO:ASX) was on the verge of a multi-billion dollar deal to sell liquefied natural gas to Shell, Sinopec and Kogas.
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WD Gann used to talk about a ‘campaign’ in the market.
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No doubt you are all familiar with Gann’s rule that the safest place to sell is the first lower top.
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As I write this article on Wednesday 25 August, there has been a very interesting day’s market action in Santos (STO:ASX).
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