The strength of the overall downtrend and the markets willingness to move quickly once it gets underway has been a huge plus for the 'gold coffers' of many clients over the past few months. An article on the recent market action has always been well received by clients, so this time around we have decided to take a brief 'post mortem' of how some of our most successful traders, and we here at the office, have seen the tale of the market.
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The Dow has been bound between 9000 and 9300 – give or take – for almost two months now hitting a low of 8999 during the week. It has been feigning a continuing rally, which so far has been thwarted.
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US “good news” economic reports arrived at the end of the weekend and the markets came off.
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When considering the options market the trader faces the choice of either the local Australian market or the U.S. Options market.
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The US markets partied big time last Friday showing no signs of wanting to ease up.
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The short answer is no!
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Uncertainty is a great environment for traders who have done their homework and are ready to stalk.
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There has been much written in the last week about bonds, interest rates and equities – almost too fashionable for me to write about – forever the contrarian!
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Company earnings season is well under way in the USA and generally reports have been well received by the “street”.
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Even though the US market ran strongly on Friday there are doubts still lurking.
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Whilst you are snow skiing or sunning yourself on the northern beaches yours truly is head down at an Optionetics seminar in Brisbane.
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One of the most common questions I get asked by new participants to the markets is where to get started?
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Much profit conversion has been taking place over the last three weeks.
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What a “rags to riches’ story Korea (south) has been, although like most global economies there is still some caution about the global economic recovery.
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It is extremely difficult to be a successful trader if you don’t have the right frame of mind.
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Two weeks ago I spoke about some short-term ensuing weakness. And we sure are experiencing it right now.
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A number of readers have asked that I write about discipline and the psychology of trading.
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Year-end for Fund Managers is nigh – and for all of us really. Although many retail investors rarely carry out much “spring cleaning”.
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The words of the Kenny Rogers’ ballad, in so many ways summarises for me what trading is about… “You got to know when to hold''em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away, know when to run".
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The Australian share market has risen almost 15% since its low of 2666 (XAO) on March 13 this year. Some very honest people have said to me their portfolio has not risen anywhere near this extent. How come?
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As traders, one problem we do not have is a shortage of choices available when finding a market to trade.
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Over the last several weeks we have brushed aside bad news and it has been very much a case of “don’t rain on my parade”.
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Ethical investing experienced a spurt in the 90’s but returns have been called into question in more recent times when getting a decent profit on any share instrument has been difficult, let alone those that champion particular causes.
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Since the commencement of Trading Tutors Weekly Review, I have spoken cautiously about what I believe to be a mild, bull recovery market.
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Last Tuesday I rang my on-line broker - who shall remain nameless – as their on-line trading was jammed – but so also was their phone service. I guess this is not surprising given the vast number of investors opening up new accounts – and margin lending accounts.
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Day One snorkelling around the Whitsundays put paid to any honest intentions I had of doing some serious “markets” research!
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Most Australians have a need to accumulate wealth for retirement. Surveys indicate that generally few people truly understand how much capital is required to retire in a life style to which they have been accustomed.
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Few would disagree that the US markets are a precursor for most world markets and Australia is no different.
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If used correctly Market Depth can help you fine-tune your entry or exit. Simply it is a summary of buyers and sellers and it shows you the balance between the two.
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I should elaborate on my view on what a rally is. A rally can be a short-lived recovery or it can be the final spurt at the end of a long-term trend up.
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Last week I covered the concept of retracement trades as our market lost momentum from the strong run up of March this year.
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In Issue #4 28 April I spoke about the likelihood of retracement of the Australian stock market and since then the market has been in steady decline.
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BHP is very much a favourite of mine – I had 10 wonderful years with the company, mainly in international trading.
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The news of the restructure and capital raising efforts by AMP has led to one of the most dramatic stock stories for the Australian Market for some time, perhaps since the Ansett, One Tel and HIH days.
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A few weeks ago I promised another review of the sectors. I have been deliberately postponing that as I had wanted to do that review at a time when the markets were not racing ahead – only because it is more difficult at these times to decipher the real underlying trends as opposed to hype of the time that drags everything along the way.
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This last week has been another one of retreat – a very orderly retracement however – what better would you want? The overall daily trend is still up but I must say some momentum has been lost and I would marginally modify my view about how far this rally might take us – at least in the medium term.
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$5.50 is the institutional price offer and so those institutions that take up the script in the current fund raising will be keen to support that price.
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This week we have a new contributor – Wayne North. Wayne is based in Melbourne and is an Options Trader on both the Australian and USA markets.
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Yes – you will need your seat belt on – not that this big dipper ride will be all that rough – but it is precautionary – that is all that is required in this market right now – prudence not fear.
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This is always a tough question. If you are a long-term investor you may adopt a more cautious approach and wait for clearer confirmation that a bull market is in the making.
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XAO, XZL, XYN, XIJ, XMD, XYP, XYA, XYB, XSJ, XSO, XYC.

Gobligook? Not really – just takes a little understanding.

Well, what a run the market has had over the last two weeks and so you could be forgiven if you were caught off guard.
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Welcome to spring – the skies are blue, the sun is shining, the birds are chirping, flowers blooming, property prices still booming, stock market seeing no limits – life is wonderful! But do we have to pay a price for this good fortune?
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Well I did have those feelings until Friday when there was some sign that the market may take that breather that so many pundits have been calling for some time.
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“Market timing” as opposed to “time in the market” is never as relevant as it is to Margin Lending (ML) to buy shares.
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I just can’t stay away from a good seminar – yes maybe I am an addict but Optionetics is back in town so I am about to take to the classroom once again.
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Markets go three ways – up – down – sideways. No need to state the obvious that recently the move has been up. The choices from here are still the same – up, down or sideways. What is more likely?
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This has just been too easy and with the name Tom – Thomas as my mother still calls me – I am the disbeliever (Didimus) about this on-going rally.
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Brambles (BIL) is a stock I have been in and out of over the last several years – mainly out!
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Well what a week. The challenge for the Newsletter Editorial this week was where to start as there was just so much to write about – we started the week with media reports from the Dubai G7 meeting which really only highlighted some on-going, festering world currency issues.
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You might ask why are we inflicted with such uncertainty all of a sudden. Life was going along swimmingly then all of a sudden we are questioning the road we have been travelling as road blocks such as currency turmoil, oil production cuts, new concerns about world growth etc. etc. are put in our way.
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I have stayed long Australian stocks and whilst I sold my US bull call spreads I am having a bob each way as I still hold US bear put spreads.
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Whether you trade the Australian Dollar or are live in the country you cannot help but have some exposure to our currency.
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There is little doubt that the markets have confirmed sustainability and this appears likely to continue barring any major surprises. Technically the markets still want to keep rising. Volume remains firm and there are few sellers so buyers left behind when the markets took off in March are having to pay steep prices to get a stake in the market in these robust times.
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I am revisiting the question “is it too late to enter the market?”, as there are so many investors constantly asking this question. They look at the juicy profits achieved over the last few months and ask is there room for more. I believe the short answer is yes but that does not mean you go out and splurge tomorrow.
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The last week again showed continuing momentum but despite the good news on the US reporting front, stocks did not match that with a surge of buying as much of the good news has been factored in. This could be a case of "buy the news sell the reality.” Indices volume is now starting to lag and this can also be seen in individual stocks both here in OZ and in the US. It’s called taking a breather – which is good to see. With the market having achieved such gains the propensity for further upside for the medium term, is abating as investors become more cautious.
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For a while there it looked like “all our Christmases had come at once” with many thinking making money this way is just too easy. Apart from the fact I have laboured the point about retracements over the last several weeks there is in fact seasonality to retracements in many markets.
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Some investors picked this stock market run up as early as March, some have picked it up over the last few weeks, some have just got in recently and are now wondering whether they should bail out and lastly there is the group that have remained on the sidelines. And I guess there are probably many investors that fit into almost all categories.
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The markets moved higher – “move” being something of a slightly dull term. The markets showed that maybe from here it is going to be something of a crawl to the top wherever that might be, but increasingly the experts are saying that is not far away. Who knows? Although the number of pundits who claim the market is overvalued is now gaining in number. And this is confirmed technically as many markets start off the day with energy only to fade as the day closes – a sure sign of caution and indecision.
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The Nikkei 225, the Japanese stock market key index, has risen almost 40% since its low of 2003 compared with the Australian market which has risen over 20% - a somewhat more cautious increase. The Nikkei started its run up over a month later - in April when it sat at its all time low of 7670 – compared to a high of almost 40,000 in the late 80’s!
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The predictable 0.25% interest rate creep announced last Wednesday hit a number of sectors, notably the Banks, Retail, Building Materials and Infrastructure. The sulking response was surprising given that the expectations were so overwhelming for an increase – the only surprise was maybe that it was a month early.
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What a dream run the markets have had over recent months - but unfortunately for the time being the easy paper profits are over. At the top of each market rally, confusion sets in - mixed feelings creep in to the market''''''''s psyche and equity sectors react in varying ways to the news around them.
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ANZ bank recently acquired the New Zealand unit of Britain’s Lloyds TSB Group, and with it doubled its market share to become New Zealand’s biggest bank.
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Our market was again US driven last week. The Australian bourse spiked on Tuesday in reaction to the positive response by US investors to the 8.2% GDP growth in the September quarter. Without taking anything away from the US markets, what is more important is what future level of GDP growth can be sustained? The 3rd quarter growth was largely from increased consumer spending part of which came from a tax cut but also some came from an increase in “fantastic plastic” credit which adds to the lurking “indebtedness” bubble.
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The current position that we find the markets in may be causing some to hold their breath in anticipation. When speaking with a number of people who trade, there is a sense of uncertainty in the market currently, this is tempered against the two major news items at the moment to affect our economy. The first being the strong Australian dollar and the second is the movement of official interest rates again this week by the Reserve bank.
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Well it almost seemed that the hot headline of interest rates would disappear from the daily press. But like it or not the theme is going to be much debated in the coming months.
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I suspect from some of the feedback we receive that many readers are still torn between media hype and the underlying reality. This is a real issue particularly when you start off trading, but if it is any consolation, even experienced traders are at a quandary at times as to what to believe.
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My wife remarked to me at a New Years Eve party that there is a lot of optimism in the air. That's not hard to find at this time of the year, but she is right, people are and have been much more optimistic of recent weeks.
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I will probably get a phone call from a certain relative who works at NAB, after they read this week’s TT. It would not be the first curt phone call I have received after naming a company in my editorial. Yes – we are without fear of favour!
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The Dow had a good pull back last Friday – "employment figures" the so called reason why, is not so relevant. If you have a look at a daily DOW chart you will note that it has had a sharp rise since the 3rd week of November, not to speak of the splendid rise since March.
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The so called NAB rogue traders were betting the Aussie would fall back in October 2003 when it was trading at about 70c. I can understand some people having a very different view to the market at any one time.
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One TT reader raised some very good issues about IPO's. A very topical subject as it is likely we will see an avalanche of them over the coming year – the good the bad and the ugly.
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Why do TT readers outperform the market? Well this is an assertion on my part but I have a strong sense this is an accurate statement - we will see if we can't do a survey at some point in time to confirm this.
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The words and titles of our favourite music often give us great cues. “Take Five� an old favourite of Dave Brubeck reminds us to take time out even when life is grand. Life is rosy for the equity investor and has been for the last 12 months for those who were on board at the beginning of this Bull Run in March 2003.
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Somebody made the remark to me that investors are frustrated and disappointed with the Australian market of recent times. I was surprised by this view although I thought it worthwhile to re-look at the markets in a different way – good to always have your thinking challenged.
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I noted increased jitters from the middle of last week – the mood changed – the press finding glitches in the armour of this market. I noted the same about September last year with headlines such as “Markets cannot climb further�.
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After my last week’s call – or at least suggestion – that the Dow could fall to 9,500 and I watched the index climb in the early part of the week, although doubt had not quite set in but I did reel back and contemplate that it was a solid call. However, after St Paddy’s day in the US had passed and the hangover set in, nobody was buying in the States and the market fell and continued to slide for the rest of the week.
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Sell the dead cat bounce? Firstly we must confirm that it is a short counter trend and the way to do this is via volume. If volume is falling and the market is rising then that is a move to heed.
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And so say all of us, us, us. Yes Trading Tutors Newsletter is now one year old and what an enjoyable 12 months it’s been – I will not say how time has flown as that will date me. I believe I can say on behalf of the Trading Tutors team that you have been a great readership and a pleasure to write for.
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Welcome back from the Easter break – I hope it has been a relaxing time for you. It is healthy to take time out and you don’t have to wait for a public holiday to do that. Sometimes we can be just too close to the market especially if we trade most days. It is good to stand back from it all for a while.
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Sometimes the markets just want something to worry about. In the US the big worry last month was the so-called jobless recovery. Then super employment growth figures were announced and guess what, the market was still worried.
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He whispers in dulcet tones and you can hear a penny drop. I can only be talking about one person, yes, Alan Greenspan. Over the years he has impressed and intrigued me.
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After holding its head high for several weeks and demonstrating a mind of its own, the All Ords caved in and followed Uncle Sam down on Thursday taking a 42 point caning. The big hit was not so much because of on-going fears of a rate rise as that is now an old story, but rather a wake up call on global growth when China made a notion they would be moderating their growth rate. Not a big deal really when you consider the Chinese economy grew at 9% in 2003 and will probably turn in a rate close to 8% in 2004. Not bad when you consider the world’s largest economy (the USA) will grow this year at about 4.5% and struggling Europe at less than 2%.
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Great employment numbers in the United States but the Dow managed another decent sell off - all over 25 miserly interested rate points even though it is an increase which has been on the cards for some months. Well that is the analyst’s proffered reasons but the Dow is simply uneasy at these lofty heights and it appears nothing will make it happy until a real pullback happens.
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A few months ago all news was good news, now all news is bad news – no matter how good it may be – how our perspective has changed!
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Wish you had shorted the market? Well there are times when many a trader wished they had, but by the same token, if you had then you may well have wondered about the wisdom of doing so.
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Those who did not short sell the market may be smarting but there is still risk to the downside.
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The sharemarket boom is not quite on the front pages yet of newspapers but the new record last Wednesday did rate a small heading in the financial press. But wait, it will eventually make the front pages but we are some time away from that. Why? The markets have some way to go.
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Welcome back to TT and to our new time slot – we hope receiving it late in the week will give you more time to leisurely read it over the weekend.
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There are Traders and Investors.

And even within these two broad classifications we come in many different species. I do not know two people that trade or invest in the same way.

In sickness and in health? That used to be the case but not in today’s environment.
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I was not an early convertee to the gold story although I have been in and out of gold stocks over the years. Certainly gold had a great run up from July to December 2003.
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I would like to repeat a small portion of an article I wrote on NAB in the June 28 edition of SharesBulletin. With the recent fall in NAB’s share price, I thought the article may be of interest to Trading Tutors readership generally.
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There can often be much confusion about dividends and the focus they occupy in investors’ strategies. A key question to ask is – am I investing for dividend or for capital growth?
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The art of being truly objective in all ways of life is something worth aspiring to. But in investment and trading in particular impartiality is an absolute essential.
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Everyone’s investing style is different and one cannot pretend to understand how others might conduct their financial affairs. From my exchanges with many subscribers I know the spectrum stretches from the conservative ‘buy and hold’, to those who are actively trading derivatives in their numerous forms.
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Last weekend I presented the share market section of what I thought was a very high powered three-day Investment Seminar. The key note presenter was a most impressive speaker and also a very successful investor in his own right.
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It makes me cry when I see the way people blow money in the markets. Some lose it with assistance from others and I cringe at the advice I sometimes see people being given – even by registered advisors with the best of intentions.
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We are well into the reporting season and one that has produced a mixed bag of results. If we were achieving these earnings levels 18 months ago we would all be ecstatic. But as we have been enjoying the good times even more good news can be so easily diluted.
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Markets go up, they go down. The secret to making money is one of timing – largely.
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I have heard many investment advisers tell clients that if you buy a share (or take a futures or options position) and the price falls (and that is a familiar story) then if you buy more this will reduce your input costs.
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Yes I can see the headline long after the dust has settled down post election. It will be a political heading not too far from the one a couple of elections ago stating "even a drover’s dog" could lead a certain political party to victory. But the dog failed.
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One of the hardest actions to take is to lock in profits – no matter how small. Never castigate yourself for taking profits too early.
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The newspapers would have it that it does not get any better. The old adage that when the market hits the headlines then it is time to go.
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Given that our local economic outlook is a pretty picture what on earth can bring clouds to our bourse.
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If I write one more word on the giddy heights of our local market I expect I will be branded a party pooper. Yes, right now you have to go with the flow – the direction is up, and volumes are strong indicating the big boys are still buying with gay abandon.
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The climbing oil price is not all bad. One would expect that with the escalating oil price and therefore mounting input cost, that this would result in inflation and hence an increase in interest rates.
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Heaven forbid!

The world anxiously awaits a USA election result, even if for the most cynical it simply takes this marathon political event off their front pages and TV screens. The world wants to get on with life.

Well, the US electorate had its decisive election result and it is for them and I guess, the rest of the world to digest.
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Right now, we are in an era where we are saving the least portion of our earnings – ever! Yes in our days we saved and then bought.
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If you didn’t know it, we are almost at the tail end of the high bridal season in India, when gold gifts abound.
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We have long been fascinated by the DOW, and volumes have been written about this single indicator, which has driven so many of the world bourses.
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Whilst the internal drivers for the local economy are still very sound, the global economic picture is not a universally robust one. We will look at likely growth rates for the key economic blocs and attempt an overall assessment of our economy and in turn our equities market.
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Our share market may well retreat before year end, but it would take a major pullback to dampen the Christmas spirit of those who have ridden the highs of the 2004 market. Barring the unknown, a major pullback would be much heralded, as many would see it as an opportunity to get in to the market for the first time or to have a second bite of the cherry.
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Yes the end of 2004 is nigh.

This is the last ‘full’ version of Trading Tutors Newsletter this year as we anticipate that come this time next week you will be very much in the Christmas season spirit.

In Trading Tutors two weeks ago I promised that we would review the drivers for the markets in 2005.
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The standout sector for 2004 was Energy – up 43%, boosted by the uncertainty of supplies from the so-called trouble spots.
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It is rare that we see such unrestricted runs in the market as we did in 2004.
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Of your available ‘funds for investment’ how much should you keep aside as cash?
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Insider knowledge and insider trading are of course two different concepts and not to be confused.
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I had an email this week from a subscriber of SharesBulletin – as part of the subscription we review shares on request – which simply stated ‘I have lost money on MST.
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As I cycle through the Top 300 ASX stocks I see quite a number that are going through a major pullback.
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DOW you are all over the shop! Down 174 points Tuesday, up 63 points the next day.
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When investing or trading, going ‘eyes wide shut'' can sometimes be a useful strategy – especially right now.
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Being one to glean the headlines with amusement I read last week on one front page how oil futures were climbing at a frenetic pace.
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George Fontanills , the great options master has often stated that if we look around us we can see lots of things that tell us what is going on that will help us in our trading. Two examples come to mind.
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I am regularly asked questions about IPOs and a SharesBulletin subscriber this week prompted me on the subject.
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There has been a fair bit of debate in recent days about tax cuts at both a federal and state level.
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Australian citizens who turn hundred receive a telegram from the Queen. Why hundred?
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Some of you may have noticed from our newsletter last week that we clicked over our 100 th edition which we thought was a worthy milestone.
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Whilst I covered oil only a matter of a few weeks ago, when I saw the report that Goldman Sachs believes oil will head to US$105 I had to revisit my own projection.
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Just as I see all the gloom about the market I reckon it's time to start to thinking contrarian – not for the sake of it but rather when the markets become predictable you have to ask, "Is there another angle?".
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As I ‘pen’ my words this morning I cannot believe my blurry eyes - the DOW is up 206 points. What is going on?
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The Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold earlier this month – but despite benign inflation rates announced this week the next move in rates is only on hold for a matter of months.
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For the investor or trader who only buys or goes long this is the time to take a break.
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Your editor was not in the budget "lock-up" but he will be in the TradeFest enclave at Darling Harbour for Thursday and Friday of this week.
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We have seen the DOW move ahead 324 points in the first three days of this week and whilst our market has followed suit it did so slowly and is now doing some catch-up.
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We could also go on to say a ‘rolling stone gathers no moss''.
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Where are the days at the big sales when you got crushed at the huge front doors of the ‘emporiums'' at seven in the morning?
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Opinion is always divided on the financial markets – that is the very nature of the markets.
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It was on the Ides of March when the slide on our share market started.
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The lil’ Aussie battler is on the march. In time it will take out the March 2005 high of almost 80 cents.
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For much of the period 1600-1800 China represented about 30% of the world''s GDP - gross domestic product.
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There are a number of reasons why as an investor you may stand aside from the markets.
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When I invest I do like to feel I am with others. That is, that there are other buyers alongside me.
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The possibility has to be raised and aired. What if?
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So I have shown my age again. If you are my vintage you may recall a film of a similar title that your parents may have watched many moons ago. It reminds me of planning for the future.
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Here I am talking about the time to buy during the trading day and the time to sell.
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Two months ago in my column, I talked of how interest rates are likely to remain stable for some months yet. That
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I just love it. Yes, finding a lateral angle to the markets.
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Thank you for your feedback on my recent editorial on trading overseas markets. A number of readers have asked the question "What if you are trading short term positions, for example, in the soft commodities?".
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Tis the season, but not necessarily to be jolly. It is the season when we see markets pull back.
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You may have heard me speak of cockroaches before. You see one and you can bank on it that there are more.
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As there are a few pundits calling the lil’ Aussie battler down, it is time to once again look at its fortunes.
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The economic clock is ticking. Slowly. It stops for no man or woman.
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And well you may ask, what is a blow off? It is a term to describe when a market, after some hectic times, makes one final move upwards….but with low volume.
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At the Safety in the Market Trading Tactics seminars I encourage participants to set themselves the goal of identifying and trading their first double top or double bottom, with the expectation that the market will achieve 200% of the previous range.
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Some of you may recall my article on WDC a month or two ago and many will have heard me talk about it at the recent Trading Tactics and Interactive Trading Workshop seminars over the last few weeks.
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I have received much ribbing about this topic.
Let me explain.
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In Trading Tactics Issue #128 07 October 2005, I noted a possible double bottom setup in Cocoa which, at the time of writing, is still to come to fruition.
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Too much knowledge can be a dangerous thing when it comes to trading. In particular, too much fundamental knowledge.
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What we do know is that we have had a pullback – whether it is complete is another matter.
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Can the DOW rise again? Can the DOW trend again?
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It has only been a month since I wrote about hurricane fear. It has now passed. The clouds, wind and turbulence have passed.
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You could say it has been a lost decade for Japan – the world’s second largest economy.
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It’s not a big call to say gold is headed towards US$500 – despite a firming dollar.
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When Gold traded at a low of $255 per troy ounce in early 2001, who could have imagined that within 5 years it would almost double in value to trade at over $500 per troy ounce?
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Just as world equity markets start to recover some party pooper talks about a recession. Can’t we just bask in the sun for a little while?
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Double tops and double bottoms are, without doubt, my favourite technical set up.
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Sure, spring has passed, but when it comes to trading and investing this is a great time to look at your investments before closing down for the Christmas break.
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This week I’m returning to talk about my favourite market of them all, the SPI200.
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2005 is in the bag and so it is time to turn our thoughts to 2006 and start thinking of how we invest in the coming year.
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Below is what I call the economic Ferris wheel.
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So what is 2006 likely to bring us?
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Traditionally this is the time of the year to forecast where the sharemarket might be heading in 2006.
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Traditionally this is the time of the year to forecast where the sharemarket might be heading in 2006.
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I think it is agreed that we are going to encounter lots of volatility this year, so how, as a trader or investor, do we handle it?
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The last few weeks have been extraordinary, with our resource stocks heading higher almost every day.
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Last week I spoke of the likely future pattern for oil.
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Is it time to buy? This issue is never clear cut and I always maintain that at such times there are no neon lights flashing saying - "buy me... buy me".
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Last week I briefly reviewed the recent pullback in our market and, as I am sure most of you are aware, the Materials and Energy sectors have been driving the market – up and down.
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We may not be the standout performer of the global economy but things sure are sweet.
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By the time this article hits the press, so to speak, the market action will have unfolded further.
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I would like to continue on from my theme of last week – bonds and interest rates.
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Last year I was so bold as to suggest the Aussie dollar could climb into the 80 cent territory.
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In the USA market, stocks commonly have prices in excess of $100 - the Berkshire Hathaway price (BRK) is almost US$90,000!
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Trading is a tremendously rewarding and satisfying pursuit on numerous levels.
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Yes I know you have heard it before; 'all news is good news.' For the moment it is. The DOW is climbing despite 15 consecutive interest rate hikes.
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Six weeks ago when the market was quiet - very bearish even - contrarians were taking a lateral view and setting themselves up to buy when everyone else wanted to sell.
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This is a headline I saw this week in the financial section of a major daily. And I thought, 'someone is dreaming again'.
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Here in Australia, with our share market roaring along, it is easy to forget the DOW Jones which is, after all, the world's leading share market indicator.
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The Aussie dollar is on track for a new record, albeit a short-term one. Yes, US80 cents is in sight!
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In sideways or falling markets it is too easy to take the view that there is no value and just walk away.
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As I have watched market depth over the last few days I have seen the sell side rapidly climb to well and truly outweigh the buy side.
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The last few days have demonstrated how merciless the markets can be. In the last several months - in fact over the last three years - we have seen how perky the market can be. But now we see a very different mood.
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Every so often it is good to revisit the economic Ferris wheel to assess where we are headed in this confusing economic world. It helps us make some sense of the wild melee – and may possibly instil some calm!
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When the market is in the depths of a pullback, such as we are currently experiencing, traders watch other traders to see what their next move might be.  We all do it, yet none of us wants to give away our own position.
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Some say it is acute, some say chronic, we await further diagnosis. But Uncle Sam certainly looks unwell and this is no surprise.
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I know you are still feeling very disappointed, annoyed, and maybe even angry, with the market. Perhaps so much so that you are turning your back on it in a huff.
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Thank you so much for your flow of emails and feedback. But can I repeat, please do not ask for detailed responses.
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The Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold this month – but this is not to say that interest rates will not rise before year end.
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When placing your buys or sells, it is amazing the advantage you can gain by avoiding paying full tote.
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‘Where are you now?’ are the title words to a Britney Spears song.  But she has no copyright to those words as it is a question I have often asked – mainly of myself.
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I remain a sharemarket bull for the next several months, including well into 2007. That is despite the current gloom about expensive bananas. Sorry international readers, but my favourite soft bender is the key driver of inflation here in OZ and will be the root cause of interest rates climbing .25% in the first week of August.
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What if? What if our world was revalued? What if gold should be really only $200 an ounce, oil $20 a barrel, our home worth half of what it is valued at and interest rates were 18% again?
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In my recent column for Your Trading Edge magazine, I took the words from that great Welsh classic film of the 40’s "How Green Was My Valley".
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When looking at the big picture, in order to try and get a fix on an investment strategy for the future, it is useful to look back at history and see if we can learn.
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In setting yourself on the right track for the year ahead, asset allocation is oh so important. By asset allocation I mean the way in which we allocate available investment funds with a diversity that suits your own individual profile.
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The USA Federal Reserve has made 17 consecutive .25% interests with the last resting level being 5.25%. There is possibly one more to go - who knows in this fickle world.
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It is time to take a quick look at what is happening on our local bourse.
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This week I attended - for all my sins - an economic conference. Enough to put many asleep, but I managed to stay awake for the bleak warnings handed out.
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In my first book 'Fair Share' I wrote about sector analysis and provided the 'weighting' of each sector in the All Ords.
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The resource prophets of doom have been enjoying a heyday (or several weeks) calling the end to all things good. Those bears will be sent packing in the coming year.
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We need Oil in increasing quantities, but because it is a 'dirty product' to handle, no-one wants to build refineries any more.
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I have not traded index futures, but I do follow them as I was always led to believe that they can give an inkling about where the physical market may be headed.
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Much of the economic growth limelight has been on China and to a much lesser extent India. And we know the combo - Chindia - is adding high octane fuel to current global growth.
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Does a market have a memory? That is a question that we could spend forever trying to resolve. The first part to the puzzle is to establish if a market remembers what it has done in the past; the next step is to determine what does it do with that information?
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In the 80s and 90s Ravinder Mehra worked as a Fund Manager for a number of well known global fund managers and in 1996 established his own Vega Asset Management and in less than a decade had $12 billion under management with offices in key global financial centres. Impressive.
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Even though pundits had predicted the world running out of oil and suggested that the price for the liquid black gold would hit US$100, the price for oil still struggles below US$60.
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Only a few months ago the headline would have been: ‘Markets Behaving Badly’.  And rightly so.
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The old high of May 2006 has been surpassed with the prospect of a new all time high - maybe beyond some people's wildest dreams.
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You may have already forgotten that back in June, July and August our share market was pretty ordinary. Or is all news good news right now?
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I have been watching you of late and notice you've been lazing in the sun before summer is even here.
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We all know that to build a future we need a solid foundation - be it an actual building or a pursuit in life.
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Bond traders the world over have a reputation for pushing their case too far, but it is the market's natural tendency to over shoot in both directions - upwards and downwards that keeps traders happy.
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Yes, I loathe it when someone tells me this. But it is true. This year has proven to be a phenomenal year for traders.
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The sort of chart you look at can be an important determinant of how much money you make. It is thus useful to challenge the way you view a market.
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Most people seem to have a modicum of success in picking stocks and other financial trades.
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Trading and investing is a marathon. One of the errors I see so many investors making is having high expectations about the timeframe for returns and the magnitude of those returns.
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Please excuse my paranoia about selling the top.
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Copper can be a useful benchmark as to where base metals may take us in the weeks and months ahead.
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This week we are going to take a look at a sector that has not been reviewed for quite some time - the Health Care Sector (XHJ).
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Before the recent global shakeout, triggered by the Shanghai sell down, I had contemplated writing about hot money. The point is still relevant.
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I am not asking you. That is oh so personal. But I was asked many times - too numerous to mention.
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As if we didn’t have enough troubles in sharemarket land.  Now we get not just triple witching but quadruple witching.
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LPTs are Listed Property Trusts and are a way of getting exposure to property outside of your own residence. Because an LPT is a share you can buy and sell at will, and thus as a property investment, it offers great liquidity.
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You are not really convinced about the markets yet, are you? You are holding back. I can see it on the charts.
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You may also have seen articles in the press about the relationship between gold and oil.
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When you talk ‘banana republic screen jockeys’ sinisterly playing havoc with interest rates and the ‘lil Aussie battler’ there is only one person that comes to mind – yes Paul Keating.
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After the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, the US stockmarket charged ahead. On Wednesday, both the DOW and S&P 500 closed at an all time high.
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For those who admonished me for even uttering ‘sell in May and go away’, mea culpa mea culpa.
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After a string of record runs earlier in the week, the momentum was snapped by Fed chairman Ben Bernake when he suggested that recent strong economic data would reduce the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates.
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We saw a strong jobs report in the US on Monday which started the week on a positive note before a huge triple-digit fall on the DOW on Tuesday.
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The US posted two record closes this week before ending the run in Wednesday’s session.
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Making money is tough enough without throwing it away on trades that take a wrong turn.
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US markets took a precipitous fall today, with the DOW dropping 450 points before gaining back some ground and leveling off at 311 points down.
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The theme of the week on US markets remains the sub-prime meltdown, with Wall Street selling anything associated with sub-prime, credit, securitization or default issues.
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The markets have now reached their 10% correction point.
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The week went from renewed confidence after the US Federal Reserve cut discount rates by 0.5% to renewed worrying about the still-unfolding US sub-prime mortgage saga.
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It’s been a short trading week in the US due to the Labor Day holiday on Monday. Wall Street returned to work on Tuesday buoyed by hopes of an interest rate cut in the September meeting.
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US
Employment data released Friday reported the first decline in US jobs since August 2003.

I am talking about black gold and not ‘good oil’ in the sense of the ‘low down’ or ‘secret information’.
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The falling US housing market continues to beleaguer the stock market. Unsold homes reached a 15-year high, with July sales dropping 0.2% for the fifth consecutive decline.
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Early in the week, easing credit concerns pushed the DOW through 14000 for the first time since July.
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US

An upbeat U.S. jobs report allayed fears that the world''s biggest economy is on the wane and that corporate profits will slow.

I have the tongue out of my cheek for a serious note this week.
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Metal prices have risen at an extraordinary rate in recent years. You can see from the weekly chart below that prices have risen five-fold in less than five years for Hi Grade copper, a benchmark metal.
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US

Strength in technology shares and weakness in financial shares based on third-quarter (3Q) earnings was the theme this week.

US

The stock market marked the 20th anniversary of Black Monday with the biggest falls since July as Caterpillar warned of a recession.

In the near term the DOW has arrived. There is not a lot more major travel for the time being – up or down – even though you may ‘feel’ the market is a little frenetic and the media/analysts beat it up.
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The major news out of the US was the Federal Reserve’s quarter-percent interest rate cut Wednesday. It was widely expected, and the market rallied on the news.
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Comments from Ben Bernanke regarding concerns about the US economy on the growth side and inflation side have had a negative effect on the markets.
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Volume indicators are often used to confirm the validity of price movement.
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It was a volatile week, with traders selling out of positions on Wednesday ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
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The word ‘black’ means different things to different people.
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US - The Federal Reserve “Beige Book”, released today, will be reviewed carefully by traders and investors to gauge the future health of the US economy.
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When you look at a line chart of the DOW or All Ordinaries and ask investors to look back and point to where they would like to have bought in, almost without exception they point to the major retreats that we call ‘pullbacks’.
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US - At long last we see some positive data out of the US.
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The Scottish traditional ‘Will ye no come back again’ that laments the prospect that Bonnie Charlie may not return reminds me of metals.
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US - US Markets closed the week with the DOW just 0.7% away from record highs, though recent data indicates that consumer confidence fell to a two-year low in September.
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It is several years since I have seen such controversy and diversity of opinion amongst the bears and the bulls about market direction.
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US - The US market saw another mixed and volatile week.
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I hope opening with the chart for the All Ords won’t bring back too many scary memories:
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The theory goes that the first week of trading for the year is an indicator of what to expect for the rest of the year.
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US
This was a big week in terms of economic news.
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Well much has happened in the last week and if I was writing as I did last week on the mother of all share indices – the DOW – I would probably have taken an even harsher view.
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The big surprise of the week was the service sector ISM index. The numbers caught the market by surprise showing the worst result since 2002 when the US was last in recession.
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This week the US stock market rallied on hopes of an interest rate cut. The rate cut came, but at 25 basis points instead of the expected 50.
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US markets saw another volatile week. Though somewhat buoyed by strong retail sales, markets fell in the wake of sobering comments by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.
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In focus this week was Ben Bernanke’s semiannual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee.
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It has been reported that some companies have been struggling with the fall out from the credit crunch in recent months and my editorial this week relates to this scenario.
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Thornburg Mortgage shares lost more than half their value on Thursday as the result of bankruptcy worries. The lender said that it had defaulted on debt.
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The Federal Reserve announced on Tuesday that they would inject $200 billion into treasuries to try and instill stability into financial markets.
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The US Federal Reserve has gone from plugging 10 billion dollars or 20 billion dollars in liquidity injections to adding another zero on the figure.
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Revised final 4th quarter GDP numbers came in at 0.6% as expected showing that the US economy had almost stalled in the 4th quarter of 2007.
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Ben Bernanke in his testimony to the Joint Economic Committee admitted for the first time that the US could be headed into recession in the first half of 2008 before recovering in the 2nd half of the year.
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The US earnings season was kicked off this week.
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The US market managed to retake a good deal of last week’s losses as investors found confidence in a raft of better than expected quarterly results.
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The US market was in stark contrast to last week’s bullish earnings reports.
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US markets were dominated by economic data and monetary policy this week, and after a somewhat lackluster start, we saw some very solid gains on Thursday.
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US markets failed to maintain last weeks 4 month highs throughout the week, as soaring oil prices added to inflation concerns, and further weakness in the financial sector off-set gains elsewhere.
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Since carving out fresh highs in late October, world markets experienced the first significant correction in around five years, and for many it was a rude awakening.
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Record oil prices have taken a toll on the US stockmarket this week.
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After a shocking week previously, the US market managed to regain some lost ground through to Thursday despite a raft of disappointing economic data results.
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Renewed concerns over the impact of the credit crisis acted to erase all of last week’s gains in just the first part of the US trading week, before a re-think later on Thursday gave rise to the biggest one day rally since the start of May.
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The sell off continued on Wall Street this week with Financials again bearing the brunt of investor nervousness.
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Not since the oil crisis of the 70’s have we seen such a massive increase in the cost of energy.
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Before I compose my editorial I await columnist’s articles to see is there a theme I should avoid – if for no other reason than to avoid the risk over weighting a theme.
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Last week we discussed the rise and rise of crude oil, and the factors that have contributed to the persistent upward push.
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Congestion can be a useful guide to a breakout and if you get the right direction you can make money a plenty.
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When we talk about efficiency in markets, we are referring to the speed with which new information is accurately priced into securities.
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The papers have been telling us that this has been the worst fiscal year for the equity markets since year dot or when Adam was a kid.
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I was given a generous gift voucher for a major and quality department store and I went there last Saturday but I am sorry to report I could not spend the money.
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Banks are really on the nose at the moment and no-body wants to go near them.
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Yes this is typical of the devil, lurks does the damage and disappears.
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Well well wouldn’t you know it? The banks have finally declared an increase in provisions for write offs.
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US markets have seen yet another week of indecision and volatility as traders tried to weigh up falling oil prices and steady interest rates against further weakness in the financial sector and wider economy.
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As you know I am quite happy to take questions and weave the answers into the editorial where appropriate.
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As I watch the DOW going up and down like a yoyo I ask myself again who is buying and sorry - what they are smoking.
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Why it is that round figures loom large?
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The rapid growth from developing nations like China and India have helped to significantly boost the demand for resources like iron and copper, and as such we’ve seen solid increases in volumes and prices in metals over the past 5 years.
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I remember writing in TTN a couple of years ago about how life was going to get a whole lot more expensive and sure enough economic theory did not fail me.
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I am often asked is it too late to sell in this sharemarket demise.
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Well it should really read ‘Signal Your Punches And Get King Hit’.
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To sell or not to sell, that is the question...
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Second guessing can be expensive
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It has been a horror week on global equity markets with the credit crisis claiming another high profile victim, and the US government being forced into bailing out yet another major institution.
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Before I sit to compose my editorial I generally think several days in advance of my topic and usually have a variety of topics I would like to explore.
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With markets around the world continuing to fall, investors are faced with two primary questions; should I sell out and when should I start to buy again?
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The horse has bolted and regulators now want to jam the door close.
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Another week, another major drop in the share market.
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There is much chat about the likely demise of the US dollar.
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The aggressive interest rate cuts from central banks this week will certainly be welcome news for borrowers, but is it really something to cheer about?
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When it comes down to a choice between technicals and fundamentals, technicals usually win out.
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Share market movements can seem almost random, and it can often be difficult to rationalize the daily changes in value.
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The hot topic at the moment is of course whether or not the market has bottomed.
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Sean writes: ‘Around the middle of this year you gave us your thoughts on where you thought the SPI was headed.
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Over the years I have been fortunate enough to meet many “mum and dad” investors from around the world.
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What is the true worth of a company? This is both a very difficult question and an easy one – depending on how you look at it.
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Our world of finance, of greed, of desperation to survive reeks of panic.
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It’s a fairly straightforward matter to justify the expectation that markets will recover, that the vast majority of companies will remain solvent and that the economy will pick up.
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The G20 meeting in Washington last weekend left much to be desired.
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Looking back over the history of the Australian market since the inception of the SPI futures contract in 1983, you will find no other bear cycle as savage for such an extended period.
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As I watched the markets this week – well up to Thursday when I write my column
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A very interesting question from one reader
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Global economic crisis notwithstanding, it’s a safe bet that many Australians will devote a sizeable part of the family budget to buying gifts for friends and family.
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‘Peter’, a SharesBulletin subscriber asked – some time ago so sorry Peter about the delay – for a review of the AUD/USD. And I thought it would be of interest to TTN readers also.
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Governments panic. Well Governments might say the Feds are independent and it is the Feds who are panicking.
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I wish I could have you open your first TTN for 2009 with good news from Tom. Alas the future is still unclear.
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I am sure most of you will recall how Noah let out a white dove from his ark after he thought the great floods were over.
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Will we love again? Will we ever reach a time when we can relax about our job, our mortgage, about our life time savings, go out and have a great time and not worry about tomorrow?
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As I sit and write my editorial – sitting on 100% cash and watching markets rise solidly over the last few days – I challenge my conviction.
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This is a topic about which I wrote some time ago in this column and SharesBulletin but I feel further mention is warranted here in the Trading Tutors Newsletter.
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This reporting season has seen most companies reveal substantial drops in earnings, but despite this we have actually seen many stocks rise after the event.
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If I recall correctly from the Four Corners show on Australian ABC TV this week Gerry Harvey admitted to losing about $1.5 billion in wealth in the last year or so – but still has a cool billion left. This was a billion he never had within his sights or reckoning years ago so he is still laughing.
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The truth will set you free but first you will want to slash your wrists.
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Sorry to be back to the dour side of investing life.
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I occasionally scan the Dow Jones – which of course is not a big job as there are only 30 stocks but as I scanned today it crossed my mind that it could be a much faster task in a while because what I saw was not pretty and there could be fewer to scan in the coming months.
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Yes I understand that and the first bit of new light I promise I will be shouting from the highest mountain but at the moment I can’t manage a squawk.
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A few months ago I wrote about how the USA was in decline and China was fast catching up - and so I thought that it was time to relook at these economic power machines. Not that a lot can change in a few months that will influence the outcome in decades to come.
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What do you make of the recent rally - bear market rally or start of a new sustained bull run?

Dare I contemplate that thought for a moment? But it has happened before and it could happen again.
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All markets will ultimately recover but how and when we cannot say with great confidence at this point.
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I am currently travelling in Vietnam - no such thing as North and South - as they leave the past behind and get on with life today.
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This week we learnt that Australia has (so far) narrowly avoided a recession; a technical recession that is. However there is another technical definition that has so far largely escaped popular attention…

The long term performance of share markets is truly remarkable; a fact that is easily demonstrated by looking at a chart of any major market index. Despite regular and often severe effects such as wars, recessions, bubbles and crashes, the major industrialised markets have always recovered and gone on to carve out bigger and better gains. Over the long term, the share market has always outperformed all other asset classes, period.

As we close on the end to the current financial year many are asking are the recent sell offs in the equity markets the sign of more to come. It has to be said since the early May we have travelled predominately sideways and this last climb to yearly highs has been very weak with volumes and average ranges shrinking. The fundamental news in the market has also been negative against a rising prices, this combined with the need for many stocks to go into capital raising by issuing more shares may have finally weighed the market enough for it to take a break.

There are but two certainties in this life: death and taxes. Neither are particularly attractive prospects, but the fact is they are both inevitable. In regard to tax, we must at least acknowledge it as a necessary evil. It provides the money Governments need to pay for essential services such as schools, hospitals, roads and a host of other things that are absolutely essential for a healthy and functional society.

There is near unanimous consensus amongst all in the investment community that stocks are currently very cheap. Having said that, there is little agreement on whether or not now is the time to get back into the market; sure, stocks are cheap, but will they get cheaper still? And that’s the 64 million dollar question: when is the right time to position ourselves for a recovery?

Last week I compared the current market downturn with that of the 1929 market crash.
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I call them the deadly sins because in your investing or trading they can kill your capital AND your psychological capital – which is just as deadly.
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How much would you pay for a glass of water? Alternatively, what is a glass of water really worth? The answer of course is that it all depends.
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Losses are a part of the game. Well I use the term ‘game’ loosely but it can be that way just like life. But as with life we like to be in control to what extent can be reasonably expected.
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People love a good story. But beyond their entertainment value, stories play an important role in how we interpret the world.
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If you follow the bulk of investors then you will find yourself too late into a rally and too late out.
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Over the past few weeks I had the pleasure of visiting different parts of mainland China. What becomes immediately apparent to any visitor to the major population centres in the eastern provinces is the large scale industrialisation and urbanisation that is occurring.
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And many - if not most – traders and would be traders are guilty.
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What an amazing couple of weeks. Just when it looked as if a new downtrend had become established, the market reversed direction and went on to carve out some of the most aggressive runs we’ve seen in a long time.
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Discipline is the last of my series on the ‘Seven Deadly Sins of Trading’. But it is by far the most important of all.
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At a recent trivia night the host offered free drinks to the person who could outlast everyone in a game of heads or tails.
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Sometimes you just don’t have clarity. And when that happens I always find it is best not to do anything.
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Regular readers will know that my passion lies in building well balanced portfolios designed to produce an attractive and growing income stream and above average long term capital gains.
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The gold buffs have not had a riveting time of late – well at least compared to equities. And gold stocks have not had such a great time either.
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There has been a noticeable shift in market rhetoric of late, with terms such as ‘Great Recession’ losing favour to phrases such as ‘green shoots’.
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I was interested in the comments made last week by a senior bureaucrat about the prospect of a second recession wave in the GFC – global finance crisis.
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Attempting to calculate the ‘fair’ or ‘intrinsic’ value of a listed company is no easy task.
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I rarely like to write in hindsight for obvious reasons – it is always easy to see things after the event.
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There are a number of clichés associated with the various months of the year, and what we tend to observe on the market in those periods.
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Yours truly took a few days of R&R in Fiji but before I went I noted quite a bit of press on the subject of Financial Advisers.
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I received an email recently from a reader asking for my view on the REIT = XPJ = Property Sector.
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Yesterday’s ultimatum to Telstra by the Government certainly came as a big surprise and has many Australians wondering what this means for them.
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Stand back from it. Study it for a few minutes please.
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Despite a lot of rhetoric over the so called ‘September effect’ most major markets around the world ended last month at or just below 12 month highs.
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This week the Australian Central bank raised the official interest rate for the first time since March 2008.
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I am often asked by many what are the best instruments to trade – Shares, CFDs, Options or Futures?
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Moving averages have long been a favourite tool of technical analysts because of their simplicity and predictive power.
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The Myer listing is one of the few mass market ‘Mum and Dad’ type offers in a long time.
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If I could have a dollar for every time someone tells me the markets are about to turn, I’d be a rich man.
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A couple of emails last week have raised some alarm bells for me that some readers may be taking the content of Trading Tutors Newsletter as ‘advice’.
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Sorry you didn’t win the ultimate multi million lotto just a mere $100,000. So you’re not set up for life but it will tie you over for a while.
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Gold is back in the headlines again with India’s purchase of 200 tons of gold being regarded as newsworthy.
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Comments from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) January 29-30 meeting revealed that the US Federal Reserve has ongoing concerns about downside risks to growth in the US economy.
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Little point in adding to the mountains of rhetoric so it is straight to the chart:
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They say that one should always avoid speaking of politics and religion in polite conversation.
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I am often asked what set up do I typically look at for a ‘buy’. I am a sworn Elliott devotee and so that is always core to my stock selection.
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The last few months have been interesting to say the least. Some got it right from day one – they piled into the share market on March 6 whilst others have dabbled along the way.
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Oscillating around can also mean being thrown around. I would like to add a little more to the subject of the oscillator which I touched on last week.
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It is best not to trade or invest beyond your ability to control your heart and emotions or nerves – call it what you like.
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It is a curious phenomenon of the human condition that we so often focus on effects rather than causes and we sometimes struggle with the idea that correlation does not imply causation.
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I traditionally have written about the Santa Claus rally about this time of the year but by the time you read this it will all be over and you will be ready to tuck into your Christmas roast turkey or iconical Aussie seafood Barbie.
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2009 was a great year for world markets. The Dow rallied close to 20% over calendar 2009, whereas the ASX200 was up over 30%.
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Firstly welcome back to Trading Tutors Newsletter! We hope it has been a restful break and you are all refreshed for the year ahead.
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When it comes to investing, the sooner you start and the longer you wait, the better off you will be. It’s an undeniable fact.
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No matter what market you look at they are all weak right now – our local market, global equity markets, commodities.
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I was somewhat remiss in not wishing our Asian readers a Happy Lunar New Year – for what will be the year of the tiger.
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I read with interest Jordan’s article before I wrote my editorial and coincidentally it was a subject about which I planned to write but from a different perspective.
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Since hitting the bear market low in March last year the share market has gained an impressive 56%. Although the damage done by the worst financial disaster in decades was not insignificant, the most dire of predictions failed to pass and we are increasingly seeing more cause for optimism. Though any recovery may indeed be difficult, prolonged and uncertain, there is money to be made.

There are some very simple technical indicators that you can employ to decide whether or not this is a good time to be trading a given share, index or future.
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Shorting can be the kiss of death for an unsuspecting stock.
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There is a long standing though controversial theory known as the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Basically, it rather bizarrely claims that well informed markets react with almost perfect efficiency in pricing new information into shares.

At SharesBulletin - www.sharesbulletin.com.au – we issue intra week updates when markets go AWOL as we saw this week. In fact we issued two this week – and there may be more to come.
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Gold is regarded by many as a safe haven when the going in the world gets tough. It can be a brightly shining lighthouse.
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At the moment – or I guess strictly speaking ‘around this time’ – so many markets are showing a consensus Elliott pattern. Let’s look at a few examples:
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Yes I know it is cliché to say such. But as I watched the Kevin Rudd spill – an extraordinary fall from grace in a very short period from giddy popularity heights.
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We saw a strong change in sentiment for the last week of June, as markets wound up their worst quarter since the Global Financial crisis.
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Although in asking this question the reverse question could also apply. Where is the high?
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It always amuses me when I hear Wall St and Europe were down ‘on the back of falls in the Asian markets – the previous day.
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Well it is a beautiful concept and one to strive for when it comes to relationships.
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It’s been an eventful week for global indices, with a number of influential factors causing the Australian bourse to see-saw its way to its current position, comfortably above the 4200 mark although still threatening to re-test those levels over the coming month.

Many of those readers new to HUBB are currently using the HUBB Investor software.
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It is about this time of year Australians start to think hard about the looming and not too far away Christmas holidays.
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I am sure Wiley will be happy for me to make reference to their recently released ‘The Wiley trading Guide’ in which yours truly contributes a chapter.
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The Markets can be a harsh mistress at times, moving against all rationale at the drop of a hat.
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Someone suggested to me we could see the markets range trade for years – maybe 10 or a dozen years!
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It’s been a wonderful time in the markets. We’ve seen a very clear trend and if you were on board using Elliott Wave Analysis you would have no doubt seen some excellent trades.
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That is the question. Well at least one important question.

Many investors get locked into the routine of a strategy without really questioning is it relevant today and in these market circumstances.
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If you follow the financial markets in any shape or form, it has been near impossible to miss the vast amount of merger and acquisition activity taking place under the current global circumstances.
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With the thought of a double dip recession gaining some increased following – but not from yours truly just yet – one might think of gold as a place to find refuge until the ill winds blow over.
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The deteriorating investment climate and recessionary environment of the last few years has had some interesting impacts on social behaviour and interests.
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Copper is often a useful guide as to the future fortunes of many of our miners – NHP, RIO, FMG and others.
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