Following on from the previous E-Ticker article, Stock Weightings on the SPI 200, this article aims to give new traders especially, a stronger understanding of Futures Contracts and their purpose within the financial markets.
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Gaining market knowledge is the first crucial element in trading any of the US contracts. There are many fundamental and seasonal factors to take into consideration. Just like trading the SPI you must determine your entry level, stop loss level and your profit level and then maintain complete discipline throughout the course of the trade.
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Trading Tutors has a large number of readers who trade futures, so in response to many requests I am reviewing some futures markets to quickly scan for interesting emerging trends.
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The readers of our newsletter have varying backgrounds with regards to the trading techniques they have used and the level of experience that they bring to the table.
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Safety in the Market has been advocating the benefits of trading Individual Share Futures (ISF’s) over recent months to our clients.
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Over the weeks that the Trading Tutors Newsletters have been published we have touched upon several areas related to the successful trading of futures.
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With many traders and investors becoming interested in the futures market there are a number of questions that I am commonly asked so I thought it appropriate to cover these issues.
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Several stock indices around the globe have been powering up since the lows in March this year.
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The SPI200 has experienced a seemingly unstoppable rally over the past 5 months and public interest in the markets is once again on the rise.
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Of recent times, trading the SPI200 has been a little frustrating when trading only with ABC trading rules. There has been a strong trend in effect though it has been difficult to enter. Trades have been opening outside our limits or if you note the swing chart since the start of October there has not been a lower swing bottom only higher swing tops. From time to time certain markets that may in fact be your favourite do everything they can to make sure you can’t trade it. This has been a topic that has been raised in my discussions with students as a trading tutor with Safety in the Market.
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Over the past few weeks I have put the topic of ISF aside. This week I have received several calls relating to how the price of an ISF relates to the price of the underlying stock. We advocate that a trader follows the chart of the stock to identify a trade and calculate the entry and exit points. The orders given to the broker are based on prices associated with the underlying stock.
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It is common knowledge amongst the majority of the public at large that in times of uncertainty commodities such as Gold provide a safe haven to capital. Looking at an overlay chart of the Dow Jones and Gold Futures contracts, illustrates the inverse nature of the relationship these two heavy weights share more times than less.
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The Dow Jones is the leading indicator for the global markets and most traders have noticed recent movement in this market and wondered how far it can travel and when we may see a pause in the strong bull run. Since March this year the Dow Jones futures contracts DJ-SPOTV has rallied above 10,000 points, a level not seen since mid 2002. Understanding the upcoming movement in the Dow may give us a lead into the movement of our domestic market. The chart below shows the strong run since March this year.
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Meeting that 'ex' again, revisiting that restaurant that gave you food poisoning and so many other experiences in life can impact greatly on how we 'feel' about life's aspects. Good and bad experiences are remnant on our emotional sub conscience hard drive – rarely does it get lost like that critical document you can’t find on your computer.
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Back in late 2003 I wrote about the potential for an explosive run in Sugar based on 30 Year cycles. Let me say right up front that the Sugar market did not take off in late 2003 as I anticipated it might.
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Searching for a level of certainty in the market seems to be the challenge for traders at the moment. Glancing at world markets we see a variety of landscapes, the American markets have seen a long anticipated pull back with uncertainty being openly discussed by the media.
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A student who has taken the time to study when ABC Trading works best will have no doubt that a strong trend is the key. We have seen over recent months how incredible the run up in Soybeans has been.
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This week has proved to be a very interesting week indeed. I have had the pleasure of watching the markets go by from Singapore and two things have dominated the news here. The Dow Jones rallying and holding above 10,000 points and the price action in oil hovering above the $40 US a barrel.
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This statement was one that was passed around at the recent Interactive Trading Workshop in Brisbane. The idea of price forecasting and repeating ranges was well covered here and this has sparked the thought to put pen to paper and look at some examples.
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Based on a 30-year cycle this could be a big year in the Sugar (SB) futures contracts. This can’t be taken as a foregone conclusion though. The importance of the 30-year cycle is revealed with some quick calculations, 30 years represent 360 months.
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Trading in a futures market is not an area where the unfamiliar should tread. There are a number of traps for new players to watch out for and some lessons seemingly can only be taught through experience.
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Last week I wrote briefly about the benefits of futures compared with the popular trading vehicle of options.
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How far can the Aussie market go? I was in two minds what to write about this week but have decided to go with a topic that will be a bonus for all readers.
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Last week I wrote about some technical ponderings on the Aussie Dollar contract traded out of Chicago.
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It’s no secret to an established Trading Tutors Newsletter reader that I’ve been watching for a big rally in the price of Sugar.
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In this week’s article I have something that has the potential to be extremely exciting and profitable.
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The Share Price Index (SPI) and therefore the Australian market as a whole, has been rocketing up over the past six months since the intermediate low in August.
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The articles about the potential top in February and then the resurrection of the beast led to some interesting responses from readers.
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For a Gann Trader and analyst the bigger picture, through the use of historical data, gives the best perspective.
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When it comes to my ABC trading these days it has become a case of always looking for some back-up evidence to support the trade.
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It''s been an interesting couple of weeks on the SPI200 since the passing of the March Equinox.
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Futures are extremely risky and should never be traded under any circumstance.
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The party being held at the ASX has come to an abrupt end with global bourses suffering heavy losses over recent weeks.
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Last week I wrote about the different futures contracts in the Safety in the Market software and how we use continuous contracts to complete our analysis.
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Back in Trading Tutors Newsletter Issue #100, I wrote about the potential for a big run up in the Coffee market (KC-SpotV).
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In the last edition of Trading Tutors Newsletter when I penned an article, I wrote about a short trading opportunity of NAB.
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A couple of weeks back in our Trading Tutors Newsletter I wrote about a pending Double Top set-up on NAB.
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In speaking with traders recently at a number of events I was asked many questions about where I see oil moving to.
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It seems like every week I want to start off saying, “Aren´t we at an interesting time in the market?”.
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At a traders'' Expo in Brisbane this time last week, many of the traders I talked to expected the market was due to correct into August lows.
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Now I know I am asking a lot but cast your minds back to 1983 and there was a Hollywood hit with Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd.
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An analogy I have been using at recent seminars is one that emphasises the necessity for a trader to have the ability to act in a way similar to a microscope.
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Selecting a favourite sector and tackling it head on can be a way to expand profits in the market.
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When it comes to technical trading, one of the most rewarding things apart from the obvious in dollar terms is seeing techniques and trade set-ups you have learned transpire before your very eyes.
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Ask any serious trader and they will surely tell you just how much easier it is to trade a consistently trending market as opposed to a market that will, at the very least, chip away at your trading capital as it whip-saws you in and out of trades.
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Despite the risk of sounding like a broken record, it is always worth revisiting previous analysis and articles once market action has unfolded.
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John Jeffery and I completed the first ever Trading Tactics Seminar in South India last weekend.
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Knowing that the top stocks within an index carry more weight can help us establish when turns in the market have occurred.
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It’s been no secret that I have been talking about Sugar price movements as being one of the great trading opportunities of the past couple of years.
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Many traders in Australia take advantage of being able to trade stock indices using CFDs.
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How many times have you heard the old cliché “I can’t start my day without a Coffee
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What exactly does a market moving in harmony mean?
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The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Grains futures market, which consists of Corn, Oats, Rough Rice, Soybeans, Soybean Oil, Soymeal and Wheat, displayed a level of weakness over the past week.
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At the time of writing (Monday 27th March 2006) the futures market on the Australian Share Price Index (AAI-SpotV) just crossed 5100 and I am starting to wonder whether I am truly a bear out of season.
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There is an old saying that the markets abhor a vacuum and most gaps will eventually be filled.
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In Trading Tutors Issue #150 published on March 24 2006 we looked at a possible double top setup in the Composite Soybean Oil (NBO-SpotV) futures market. The price of Soybean Oil dropped to the level of the 50% Pressure Point highlighted below in Chart 1, before rallying strongly back up through the level of the double tops.
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When commencing to trade futures, one of the best markets to start with is Corn (C-SpotV).
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Last week we looked at a futures market where the margin requirement was at the lower end of the scale. This week the focus turns to Silver (SI-SpotV) and we will be looking at the higher end of the scale as the current margin required per contract is $6,075USD.
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After a very strong rally out from the 5.27 low on February 12 2004 to the most recent 19.73 high on February 3 2006, Sugar (SB-SpotV) has since retreated to an area of support in June 2006.
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In Trading Tutors Newsletter # 130, I used the weekly bar chart of Coffee (KC-SpotV), Chart 1 below, to show how Coffee ran down from the December 1999 top to the October 2001 low, followed by a steady move up to another top in March 2005.
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When presenting the session on futures trading in the Safety In The Market two day Trading Tactics Seminar, I often joke about the consequence of holding a position open in the futures market on the last trading day; especially if the market in question is physically deliverable.
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By now, it is no secret that one of the futures markets that I have been watching closely and periodically trading is the Coffee (KC-SpotV) market on the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT).
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Since my last article, the Australian markets have presented some fantastic trading opportunities for traders of Australian stocks and futures.
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Since spiking to a 26-year high of $732 an ounce on May 12 2006, Gold has sold off strongly to shed approximately 25% in value, to post a low of $546.40 on June 14 2006.
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Take a close look at the daily bar chart of the Cotton Futures market (CT-SpotV) in Chart 1 below and note how this market keeps making tops at the same price level each time.
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am a firm believer that most of the fundamental information that may affect the price of a commodity will be built into a chart, i.e. the chart will tell me what I need to know in order to trade a particular market.
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In Trading Tutors Issue 176 – “Pivotal Golden Moment� we looked at the price of Gold as it was finding support along a trend line that was created after retracing from a 26-year high of $732 an ounce, in May 2006
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As the books close on 2006 it is vital that we look back on what progressed throughout the year and gain a perspective on what to expect from some of our commodity markets as we head into 2007.
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While the US Dollar weakened over the past year and fears of oil shortages hit the headlines throughout 2006, Gold futures surged past the $700 an ounce barrier to their highest level in 26 years.
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In his book, “How to Make Profits in Commodities�, W.D. Gann explains GAPS and what they indicate on grains as follows;
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Precious metals made a very strong move southwards this past week as we experienced a global equity sell-off following the decline in the Chinese stock market.
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Since trading down to the December 2004 low of 41.72, Cotton (CT-SpotV) has been vibrating within a well defined sideways channel and has been confronted with very strong resistance around the 57 to 58 cent level.
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In Issue 196 of the Trading Tutors Newsletter we had a look at how W.D. Gann explained Gaps and what they indicate about grains in his book, “How To Make Profits In Commodities�.
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Trading can offer different challenges as you progress along the track. One of the challenges that I come across at times is what to do when the market I am following stops trending.
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It is around this time of year, after the Fourth of July holiday in the US, that the critical growing season for corn and soybeans comes into play.
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It’s been just over five years since the low of October 2002 that marked the end of the bear market in the US.
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Gold has been in the headlines recently, after taking out last years highs and pushing on past the $800 an ounce mark.
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When you notice a significant price gap on a chart, it’s important to understand which data is being used.
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The question on many traders’ minds at the moment is, "Where to for the Aussie dollar?".
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Gold has traditionally been considered a safe haven against a weakening global market – and for good reason.
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Welcome all Safety in the Market traders to this month’s dedicated newsletter. Equities markets have been tracking essentially sideways since October last year with no big runs in either direction.
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It has now been over 2 months from the low on the SPI200 on 9 February and the market has not pulled back for more than two days.
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