When you are testing your trading model you must realistically consider factors that will affect your outcomes in the real time trading environment.
 Read more

The markets are moving strongly, though there is also indecision and speculation as to where it will go and by when.
 Read more

Everyday lately, I speak to at least one trader that wants to know more about trading ISF’s, so their popularity is on the rise.
 Read more

Looking for opportunities in the market is the constant search for any trader.
 Read more

Volatility, a key ingredient for profitable trading, has been a big part of the movements in the SPI200 for the majority of 2003.
 Read more

A bear put spread is a debit spread created by purchasing a higher strike put and selling a lower strike put with the same expiration dates.
 Read more

Well, a new year is upon us and with the new year comes a plethora of new trading opportunities, not only in terms of picking those winners but also in picking the right instrument to trade them with.
 Read more

For all you arm chair, tea drinking traders out there I have the perfect strategy.
 Read more

Last week we spoke of the likelihood of a market "blow off'" – higher high lower volume – and we got it last Thursday.
 Read more

I have written about this topic in the Trading Tutors Newsletter on a couple of occasions.
 Read more

In my article in newsletter #132, I explored the opportunity provided by CFDs for traders to gain important trading experience.
 Read more

A few years ago Noel Campbell wrote this article and as many of you have started your studies in the meantime, we thought it would be very beneficial to repeat this excellent article: ‘The Ten Characteristics of a Successful Trader’.
 Read more

He is dreaming again you might say.
 Read more

It’s spring cleaning if you are in northern parts and just a good old purge if you are down under.
 Read more

On Monday February 19, 2007 at 10:11:39 a.m. Funtastic (FUN) announced they had a ‘takeover approach’.
 Read more

OK, so we acknowledge that we experience a little greed now and then. Phew.
 Read more

Where the top is for this market is making fewer headlines and many analysts are now turning to the ‘big picture’.
 Read more

It is always nice to be surprised to the upside - or at least in an interesting or positive way.
 Read more

Autodesk Inc (ADSK on Nasdaq) is a software development business for the corporate world.
 Read more

It was a quiet week in the US with the Independence Day holiday on Wednesday.
 Read more

BHP which was fondly known as the 'Big Australian' is now large by any world measure and is quoted on numerous indices and bourses worldwide.
 Read more

After a few weeks of emotional extremes in the financial markets it is time to reflect on the US economic picture. There are some positive signs.
 Read more

Top Down Analysis involves determining which stocks have the particular combination of factors – technical, fundamental, economic or political – that constitute a profitable trading opportunity.
 Read more

I would like to digress this week from my mission to cover world markets.
 Read more

Copper is an important driver for our market in that it is a bulk commodity that the world still wants and we have in abundance.
 Read more

It has been a dramatic few weeks on global stock markets. The impact of the credit crunch and years of easy debt, that is simply not available now, is really starting to hit home.
 Read more

It is times like this when many traders are apt to ‘throw out the baby with the bath water’. Or in another manner of speech they ‘throw’ in the towel.
 Read more

Trading against the trend can be a dangerous move. As the saying goes, "The trend is your friend."
 Read more

The US markets had an extraordinary move up during the last week or so in anticipation of a 50 point move on interest rates by the Fed.
 Read more

When I see investors buying into the current market I ask myself, who is doing this buying? Why? Do they know something that I don’t?
 Read more

Two names synonymous with Technical Analysis are Gann and Elliott, each having their die hard followers.
 Read more

The majority of analysis conducted thus far regarding US bonds has been undertaken on the 30 year part of the curve.
 Read more

That is probably a naughty expression and is probably not all that funny considering the banks have caused a lot of heart ache of late for many.
 Read more

I would like to take the words from that beautiful song by Peter Sarstedt in 1969. Yes, I constantly date myself but I’ll leave the lyrics for another column!
 Read more

Only a few days ago Bear Stearns said all was OK.
 Read more

We have all heard the old saying, A Jack of all trades and a Master of none.
 Read more

As I emerged from my Easter retreat I saw through my blurry eyes headlines in the financial press that there was going to be greater regulation of investments banks in the US, and ditto for Australia.
 Read more

Maybe you missed the ‘bus’ and did not get on board for the ride of the last few days?
 Read more

One might think so as we hear of how they have doubled, tripled over recent years.
 Read more

One lovely SharesBulletin subscriber asked that I revisit the ‘Ferris Wheel’ that I spoke of in Trading Tutors Newsletter back in July 2006.
 Read more

Last week we talked about the signs on the economic Ferris Wheel and I promised some more analysis.
 Read more

Agflation, stagflation - call it what you like but it is still inflation and all Agflation refers to is inflation of rural commodities.
 Read more

The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet spoke at an annual company talk fest last weekend and declared that the worst was over for the markets.
 Read more

Yes it was a major headline last week and I have only one word for it – blah.
 Read more

One subscriber asked if I would do a similar review of BHP as I did for oil last week.
 Read more

Well not yet but it is possibly only a matter of time. Let’s go straight to the chart and see what we can glean.
 Read more

Always good to take a peek at the big picture. But I am never sure how to make money from it in the short to medium term, nevertheless I always think it is a good thing to do.
 Read more

Happy birthday to our much quoted and well known friend: the Sub-Prime crisis.
 Read more

The 200 day moving average is oft quoted by analysts who are ‘sometime’ technical analysts.
 Read more

All 3 major US indices are on bearish ground with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indices falling more than 20% since the last highest peak.
 Read more

Better than expected results from Citigroup, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo initially saw the US stockmarket off to a good start this week.
 Read more

Last weekend we saw another 2 US banks fold. Although they are small,
 Read more

Storm in a Team Cup
 Read more

Do you feel lucky?
 Read more

Can China save the world from this unprecedented market meltdown?
 Read more

You don''t have to struggle to get more money into your life.
 Read more

My brain is teaming with issues related to the looming global recession and China. I will try and deal with them succinctly.
 Read more

As OPEC meet to decide on production cuts, that they think may or may not affect the price of oil, I thought I would contemplate what may happen regardless of what OPEC do.
 Read more

I read a great quote over the weekend in the Astrology section of the Sunday paper. It said under my star sign that you have to measure the “freight costs of your ambition”. I thought what a great way of discussing the road to your outcomes. Like all things worthy of effort, learning to trade will have its fair share of trials and tribulations.
 Read more

Welcome back to Safety in the Market in 2009 as we kick off the year!
 Read more

2009 is now well and truly established with the hangovers from the festive break well behind us.
 Read more

Everything is rosy in the garden and that is nice. But my cautious head has been asking are markets getting a little carried away? You see, economically things will get a lot worse before they get better and what the punters are banking on is that this is the beginning of the new world.

As I scanned the financial print headlines Thursday – I only scan as reading detail clogs my brain – I quickly recalled a heading only a day earlier which just told a very different story. On Wednesday our Reserve Bank Governor was reported – on the same front page - as saying things would be sweet as here in Australia – well not in those words. And then on Thursday the IMF were reported as saying we are heading down the gurgler.
 Read more

I can’t consider any stock or future without first looking at a chart – so let’s get straight to it – a simple unadulterated daily line chart:

We have seen a soft market this week in global indices and the key question when we see such easing is: will this be an easing or the beginning of the next slide down?

Banking executives, fund managers, investors, retirees watched a little nervously early this week as the short selling ban on Australian local banks was lifted. Was an avalanche about to happen?

Many commodities and currencies have experienced steep increases in recent months. Oil is up almost 100%, copper over 80% and the Aussie 30%. So is it time to start shorting?

Reporting season can be a tricky time at best. In the good times the odd negative surprise can be brushed off as just being a mere blip and all will be forgiven in time.

Back in March when the markets took off there were many reasons to believe markets globally could have fallen much further. So few investors got on board as risks were still high. Many traders – short term players – may have taken some positions but few would have been fully invested. Well done if you picked the low.

In the coming weeks I am going to write about the seven deadly sins in investing – according to Scollon. Not because it will fill seven weeks of editorial – in fact I am always wary about serial articles – but rather I see these sins being committed regularly. In fact daily before my very eyes. And it is easy to avoid them.

As the month of June closes and currencies have rolled over to September contract, it is a good time to look at what is ahead for the month of July.
 Read more

Welcome from me to all our Safety in the Market traders to this month’s dedicated newsletter. What a great rally we have seen in the last few weeks. While it has been happy hunting for many, others have been left parked on the sideline waiting for a ‘decent’ pull-back that just never came. The title of my last monthly article was ‘Opportunities, Opportunities. Opportunities...Everywhere’ remembering that article was written on 10 July – it turned out to be not a bad call.

The markets march on as they climb to record highs for 2009. This sort of run is enough to nearly wash away the memories of 2008 but rest assured as markets move higher we are getting closer to the point where a breather is in order.

While the direst predictions over the world economy have failed to pass, it is nevertheless a fact that many of us did it tough, and in fact are still doing it tough today. But outside of losing a job any pain was most likely, to a large extent at least, self inflicted. That’s a little harsh, but the truth isn’t always nice.

There are always a few common mistakes that are made when implementing a trading system. These range from excessive positive expectation leading to over leverage all the way to a lack of preparation and system testing. Indeed, often the actual system itself leaves a lot to be desired in terms of the logic that supports it and the market conditions it is implemented through. In this article we will look at a method of back testing and some important components to be considered in developing a trading method.

I did not expect I would be revisiting this topic so quickly.

In the last two articles, in Issues 350 and 352, we looked at the strength of the low in Santos on February 26. But it would not be of much use to us if we didn’t look at how you could trade the set up. So in this article we are going to look at one way you could follow a simple trading plan to profit from the work we have done.
 Read more

There has been some excellent research conducted over the years that identifies the best performing managed funds.

When trying to judge the success of traders there is nothing more definitive than the rate of return they have been able to demonstrate.
 Read more

Markets are fascinating at any time but right now they are compelling viewing. A further email from Naresh:
 Read more

Well you know what I mean. It takes a long haul to get to a market top and no time for it to plummet to where it started.
 Read more

With a large number of traders beginning to regain an edge in their trading through integrated analysis, it is sometimes worth revisiting the concept and asking the simple question: what is integrated analysis?

Considering your recent article , don’t you think that we are at a very strong resistance level of 50 % retracement of the total fall and the current up move is about to finish as we are very near to the time by degrees date as well

Well the markets have faltered at the altar of the 50% retracement level – well and truly.  I think we can say that the 1.4% fall last week and the solid 4.5% for this week - as at the time of writing (Thursday) - is a significant retreat:

There are times in the market when you feel like you are in a threshing machine and you have no idea which way is up.

In most of my articles I tend to focus upon current market action and draw the reader’s attention to a stock, commodity or other instrument which is likely to offer profits.

Back in March 2009 the market wanted to go lower:

The current market conditions and volatility are causing a huge amount of consternation amongst investors and traders around the globe.

All traders know the trend is your friend. That is, you buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling; a seemingly self evident truth that is entirely logical, or is it?

Although picking short term moves is not a walk in the park at the moment, the medium term Elliott outlook is less difficult and in fact shaping up to be a classic Elliott set up.

Are we headed for another great depression? Many seemingly credible commentators seem to thinks so, although as is often the case there is conflicting views and rigorous debate.

Once a year I like to write about the Aussie dollar although I do not get into the serious technical’s as this is the domain of our specialist currency expert, Matt Barnes.

There have been a large number of questions arising from clients regarding the latest edition to the Key Series and where it fits into the overall picture. As most of you are aware, HUBB has developed education courses which are perfectly applicable to all traders and investors, no matter what their background or interests. Therefore, as a favour to the client service team who are fielding a large amount of calls about these courses, the aim of today’s article is to explain the Key Series and which one is right for you. Each ‘Key’ is a self contained, one month course which gives very specific goals and supports the holistic AAA Wealth Triangle Strategy, to build enduring wealth.

Yes the markets are a bit like that at the moment. Take a look at the DOW: